Revised Polling Code 2020
With the election fast approaching Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) has updated its Political Polling Code. The Code provides rules for RANZ member organisations who conduct and report on political polls, plus best practice guidelines for those publishing stories on poll results.
The Code review was conducted by a team of polling experts and takes into account technology changes in data collection and reporting methodologies since it was first introduced in 2014.
Released 26 June 2020
Rogue results or Rogue events?
The lead up to any election is always characterised by unscripted moments, own goals and the occasional red card. The 2020 election season has been particularly dramatic, especially for the National Party. The ever-changing political landscape making it hard for the voting public and the pollsters to keep up with what’s coming next.
As shown below in the timeline, in mid to late May, the two public polls ColmarBrunton and Reid Research recorded very similar results for the Simon Bridge’s National Party (29% and 30.6%), which culminated in a leadership challenge and led to Todd Muller taking over as National Party leader. The next ColmarBrunton poll in 20th-24th June recorded a solid recovery for National, up 9 points to 38%. But the period from July 8th to July 21st was an especially turbulent period for the National Party, involving the resignation of a leader, the standing down of an ex Party President and a junior MP, the appointment of a new leader Collins, and then another series of stand downs, demotions and sackings.
Reid Research started polling on the 16th, just as the centre of this turbulence was passing over the National Party. Given these events it’s perhaps not surprising that National polled lower than the pre-Bridges leadership change (25% vs 30.6%). Note that this result was still higher than its worst election night result of 22% (2002).
The CBR poll started 9 days after the Reid Research poll, with relatively clean air. Even so, National’s result with Collins as leader at 32% is only 3 points higher than National’s vote when Bridges was toppled (29%). Collins has to consider as possibilities that she hasn’t made much difference from Bridges' low point and is doing worse than Muller (6 points) or acknowledge that she has brought the party forward from the abyss of the events between July 8th and July 21st. The latter supports the notion that the Reid Research poll was an accurate and fair measure of support for a party dealing with a perfect storm of rogue waves between July 8th and the 21st.
NZ Electoral Polling Results 2002-2017
Results of polls for the last six elections can be found in the tables below.
Historical Polling Blogs
Historical polling statistics can be found on the Kiwiblog website HERE
Blogs by Gavin White (UMR) analysing polling data and the 2014 election results:
RANZ Polling Statement June 2019
Following the release of two conflicting polls in June, the Research Association NZ statement can be downloaded HERE.